Description

This analysis provides a forecast of KAS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-22 0.085451 0.095345 0.105544 0.116817 0.128900 0.141435 0.155397
2024-12-29 0.068230 0.082901 0.098886 0.117466 0.138341 0.160947 0.187152
2025-01-05 0.056613 0.074301 0.094538 0.119086 0.147742 0.179835 0.218186
2025-01-12 0.047909 0.067511 0.090945 0.120445 0.156006 0.196939 0.247053
2025-01-19 0.040754 0.061460 0.087252 0.120824 0.162452 0.211508 0.272795
2025-01-26 0.038709 0.061480 0.090734 0.129751 0.179114 0.238247 0.313161
2025-02-02 0.034298 0.057754 0.088937 0.131638 0.186826 0.254077 0.340508
2025-02-09 0.030950 0.055051 0.088118 0.134484 0.195543 0.271061 0.369316
2025-02-16 0.027091 0.051138 0.085257 0.134291 0.200114 0.282748 0.391581
2025-02-23 0.026055 0.051300 0.087969 0.141563 0.214440 0.306840 0.429518
2025-03-02 0.024699 0.050790 0.089602 0.147293 0.226744 0.328461 0.464566
2025-03-09 0.021393 0.046774 0.085800 0.145152 0.228295 0.336113 0.481862
2025-03-16 0.017826 0.042016 0.080719 0.141177 0.227541 0.341173 0.496551
2025-03-23 0.016569 0.041153 0.081566 0.145834 0.238825 0.362332 0.532459
2025-03-30 0.015161 0.039840 0.081595 0.149240 0.248411 0.381390 0.565926
2025-04-06 0.013663 0.038154 0.080870 0.151415 0.256238 0.398161 0.596579
2025-04-13 0.012067 0.036039 0.079250 0.152084 0.261836 0.411926 0.623371
2025-04-20 0.012253 0.037612 0.083929 0.162629 0.281875 0.445582 0.676890
2025-04-27 0.011110 0.036202 0.083359 0.164871 0.289811 0.462735 0.708574
2025-05-04 0.010237 0.035258 0.083513 0.168209 0.299363 0.482181 0.743481
2025-05-11 0.008973 0.033213 0.081536 0.167989 0.303564 0.494199 0.768456
2025-05-18 0.008918 0.034051 0.084856 0.176476 0.320902 0.524711 0.818699
2025-05-25 0.008643 0.034299 0.087063 0.183148 0.335573 0.551599 0.864210